New York Jets at Detroit Lions, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Geno SmithPassing31/37, 321 YDS, 3 TD
- Breece HallRushing13 CAR, 32 YDS
- Garrett WilsonReceiving10 REC, 107 YDS, 1 TD
Lions- Jared GoffPassing25/32, 269 YDS, 2 TD
- Jahmyr GibbsRushing20 CAR, 99 YDS, 2 TD
- Isaac TeSlaaReceiving3 REC, 66 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:25Jahmyr Gibbs 11 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)24–31
- Q44:06Garrett Wilson 23 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Geno Smith Pass to Sterling Shepard for Two-Point Conversion)24–24
- Q411:17Jeremy Ruckert 4 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)16–24
- Q414:57Jahmyr Gibbs 1 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)10–24
- Q36:22Jason Sanders 42 Yd Field Goal10–17
- Q310:56Jahmyr Gibbs 17 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)7–17
- Q21:36Amon-Ra St. Brown 4 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)7–10
- Q25:33Kenyon Sadiq 24 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Sanders Kick)7–3
- Q29:35Jake Bates 30 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:33Kenyon Sadiq 24 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Sanders Kick)NYJ 7 – 3 DET · NYJ 23% → 43% +20NYJ 23% → 43%+20 pts
- Q21:36Amon-Ra St. Brown 4 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)NYJ 7 – 10 DET · DET 55% → 77% +22DET 55% → 77%+22 pts
- Q310:56Jahmyr Gibbs 17 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)NYJ 7 – 17 DET · DET 76% → 92% +15DET 76% → 92%+15 pts
- Q44:06Garrett Wilson 23 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Geno Smith Pass to Sterling Shepard for Two-Point Conversion)NYJ 24 – 24 DET · NYJ 2% → 43% +41NYJ 2% → 43%+41 pts
- Q42:25Jahmyr Gibbs 11 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)NYJ 24 – 31 DET · DET 55% → 99% +44DET 55% → 99%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lions 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- DET -7
- ML NYJ +280 / DET -355
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -6
- DET 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- DET: Elo 70.0%, market 74.8%
- Fair odds
- DET -291
- NYJ +291 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYJ 21.3 – 28.3 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 49.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYJ | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1381 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +37 | — | NYJ: Geno Smith, usually Aaron Rodgers · DET: Jared Goff (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +147 Elo | DET 70.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 72.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 70.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 74.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYJ | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 3217.6 | Points scored | 28.34th of 32 |
| 31st of 3229.6 | Points allowed | 24.322nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−11.9 | Margin | +4.08th of 32 |
| 29th of 324.44 | Yards per play | 5.973rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.60 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3718th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 32 |
| 30th of 321–7 | Road vs home | 5–39th of 32 |
| 7th of 321516 | Opponent Elo | 150812th of 32 |
| 31st of 321381 | Elo rating | 152915th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  NYJ |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–10 | 8–9 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 6–5 |
| Underdog | 7–8 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 11–6 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.