New York Jets at New Orleans Saints, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Brady CookPassing22/35, 188 YDS, 1 INT
- Breece HallRushing16 CAR, 54 YDS
- Isaiah DavisReceiving4 REC, 52 YDS
Saints- Tyler ShoughPassing32/49, 308 YDS, 1 TD
- Taysom HillRushing12 CAR, 42 YDS
- Chris OlaveReceiving10 REC, 148 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:54Chris Olave 38 Yd pass from Taysom Hill (Charlie Smyth Kick)6–29
- Q45:17Charlie Smyth 39 Yd Field Goal6–22
- Q411:09Charlie Smyth 50 Yd Field Goal6–19
- Q30:41Chris Olave 23 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Charlie Smyth Kick)6–16
- Q21:31Charlie Smyth 36 Yd Field Goal6–9
- Q212:38Nick Folk 36 Yd Field Goal6–6
- Q214:18Charlie Smyth 49 Yd Field Goal3–6
- Q16:31Charlie Smyth 35 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q110:38Nick Folk 29 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:31Charlie Smyth 35 Yd Field GoalNYJ 3 – 3 NO · NO 65% → 72% +7NO 65% → 72%+7 pts
- Q214:18Charlie Smyth 49 Yd Field GoalNYJ 3 – 6 NO · NO 70% → 78% +7NO 70% → 78%+7 pts
- Q212:38Nick Folk 36 Yd Field GoalNYJ 6 – 6 NO · NYJ 23% → 30% +7NYJ 23% → 30%+7 pts
- Q21:31Charlie Smyth 36 Yd Field GoalNYJ 6 – 9 NO · NO 67% → 76% +9NO 67% → 76%+9 pts
- Q30:41Chris Olave 23 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Charlie Smyth Kick)NYJ 6 – 16 NO · NO 75% → 94% +19NO 75% → 94%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Saints 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- NO -7
- ML NYJ +260 / NO -325
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -7
- NO 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- NO: Elo 73.4%, market 73.4%
- Fair odds
- NO -275
- NYJ +275 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYJ 16.3 – 23.3 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 39.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYJ | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1328 | 1414 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −96 | −41 | NYJ: Brady Cook, usually Aaron Rodgers · NO: Tyler Shough, usually Spencer Rattler (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +177 Elo | NO 73.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 72.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 73.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NO 73.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYJ | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 3219.7 | Points scored | 16.129th of 32 |
| 30th of 3228.4 | Points allowed | 23.720th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−8.6 | Margin | −7.627th of 32 |
| 29th of 324.60 | Yards per play | 4.7228th of 32 |
| 20th of 325.44 | Yards allowed per play | 5.0811th of 32 |
| 24th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 29th of 321–5 | Road vs home | 2–526th of 32 |
| 18th of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 32 |
| 29th of 321328 | Elo rating | 141423rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYJ |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–7 | 6–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 7–5 | 5–7 |
| Overs–unders | 9–5 | 4–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.