Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Bryce YoungPassing15/24, 163 YDS, 1 TD
- Rico DowdleRushing16 CAR, 49 YDS, 1 TD
- Jalen CokerReceiving4 REC, 60 YDS, 1 TD
Saints- Tyler ShoughPassing24/32, 272 YDS, 1 TD
- Tyler ShoughRushing8 CAR, 32 YDS
- Chris OlaveReceiving6 REC, 85 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:02Charlie Smyth 47 Yd Field Goal17–20
- Q42:29Chris Olave 12 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Charlie Smyth Kick)17–17
- Q31:56Charlie Smyth 42 Yd Field Goal17–10
- Q39:54Jalen Coker 32 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)17–7
- Q20:21Ryan Fitzgerald 40 Yd Field Goal10–7
- Q23:32Devin Neal 4 Yd Rush (Charlie Smyth Kick)7–7
- Q16:39Rico Dowdle 4 Yd Rush (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:39Rico Dowdle 4 Yd Rush (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)CAR 7 – 0 NO · CAR 57% → 74% +17CAR 57% → 74%+17 pts
- Q23:32Devin Neal 4 Yd Rush (Charlie Smyth Kick)CAR 7 – 7 NO · NO 23% → 45% +21NO 23% → 45%+21 pts
- Q39:54Jalen Coker 32 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)CAR 17 – 7 NO · CAR 66% → 86% +20CAR 66% → 86%+20 pts
- Q42:29Chris Olave 12 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Charlie Smyth Kick)CAR 17 – 17 NO · NO 1% → 49% +47NO 1% → 49%+47 pts
- Q40:02Charlie Smyth 47 Yd Field GoalCAR 17 – 20 NO · NO 50% → >99% +50NO 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- CAR -2.5
- ML CAR -148 / NO +124
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR -2
- CAR 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- CAR: Elo 57.3%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- CAR -134
- NO +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 22.0 – 19.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1422 | 1393 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +6 | −52 | CAR: Bryce Young · NO: Tyler Shough, usually Spencer Rattler (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +51 Elo | CAR 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 55.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 57.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CAR | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 3219.0 | Points scored | 15.830th of 32 |
| 15th of 3222.8 | Points allowed | 24.222nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−3.8 | Margin | −8.428th of 32 |
| 25th of 325.06 | Yards per play | 4.6728th of 32 |
| 25th of 325.66 | Yards allowed per play | 5.0911th of 32 |
| 10th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 32 |
| 17th of 323–4 | Road vs home | 1–529th of 32 |
| 17th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 150615th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321422 | Elo rating | 139325th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–5 | 5–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 4–7 |
| Overs–unders | 7–6 | 4–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 1–4 NO in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.