Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Bryce YoungPassing13/36, 137 YDS
- Chuba HubbardRushing23 CAR, 87 YDS
- Adam ThielenReceiving5 REC, 74 YDS
Saints- Derek CarrPassing18/26, 119 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Alvin KamaraRushing12 CAR, 56 YDS, 1 TD
- A.T. PerryReceiving1 REC, 44 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q44:29Jimmy Graham 4 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)6–28
- Q45:59Chris Olave 7 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)6–21
- Q34:57Eddy Pineiro 29 Yd Field Goal6–14
- Q24:37D'Marco Jackson 8 Yd Fumble Return (Blake Grupe Kick)3–14
- Q29:16Eddy Pineiro 47 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q214:55Alvin Kamara 9 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q214:55Alvin Kamara 9 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)CAR 0 – 7 NO · NO 68% → 84% +15NO 68% → 84%+15 pts
- Q29:16Eddy Pineiro 47 Yd Field GoalCAR 3 – 7 NO · CAR 16% → 22% +6CAR 16% → 22%+6 pts
- Q24:37D'Marco Jackson 8 Yd Fumble Return (Blake Grupe Kick)CAR 3 – 14 NO · NO 77% → 91% +13NO 77% → 91%+13 pts
- Q34:57Eddy Pineiro 29 Yd Field GoalCAR 6 – 14 NO · CAR 6% → 12% +5CAR 6% → 12%+5 pts
- Q45:59Chris Olave 7 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)CAR 6 – 21 NO · NO 96% → >99% +4NO 96% → >99%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Saints 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -7.5
- NO 74%
- Fair odds
- NO -246
- CAR +246 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 18.2 – 24.6 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1302 | 1447 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | 0 | — | CAR: Bryce Young · NO: Derek Carr (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +182 Elo | NO 74.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 61.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 71.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CAR | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 3215.9 | Points scored | 21.419th of 32 |
| 31st of 3226.1 | Points allowed | 21.316th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−10.2 | Margin | +0.217th of 32 |
| 32nd of 324.07 | Yards per play | 5.1219th of 32 |
| 11th of 325.07 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2516th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321–9 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 32 |
| 31st of 320–7 | Road vs home | 2–321st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CAR 0–1 NO in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.