Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lions- Jared GoffPassing16/25, 213 YDS, 2 TD
- Jahmyr GibbsRushing8 CAR, 60 YDS
- Sam LaPortaReceiving9 REC, 140 YDS, 1 TD
Saints- Derek CarrPassing17/22, 226 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Taysom HillRushing13 CAR, 59 YDS, 1 TD
- Chris OlaveReceiving5 REC, 119 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q47:30Alvin Kamara 1 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)33–28
- Q414:07Jameson Williams 19 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)33–21
- Q30:00Riley Patterson 32 Yd Field Goal27–21
- Q34:34Taysom Hill 1 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)24–21
- Q310:04Alvin Kamara 2 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)24–14
- Q20:08Riley Patterson 26 Yd Field Goal24–7
- Q29:08Jimmy Graham 6 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)21–7
- Q18:15Amon-Ra St. Brown 25 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Riley Patterson Kick)21–0
- Q110:24Sam LaPorta 13 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Riley Patterson Kick)14–0
- Q111:15David Montgomery 2 Yd Run (Riley Patterson Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:15David Montgomery 2 Yd Run (Riley Patterson Kick)DET 7 – 0 NO · DET 56% → 73% +17DET 56% → 73%+17 pts
- Q110:24Sam LaPorta 13 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Riley Patterson Kick)DET 14 – 0 NO · DET 73% → 86% +13DET 73% → 86%+13 pts
- Q34:34Taysom Hill 1 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)DET 24 – 21 NO · NO 12% → 33% +22NO 12% → 33%+22 pts
- Q414:07Jameson Williams 19 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)DET 33 – 21 NO · DET 80% → 95% +14DET 80% → 95%+14 pts
- Q47:30Alvin Kamara 1 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)DET 33 – 28 NO · NO 1% → 17% +16NO 1% → 17%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lions 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -2.5
- DET 59%
- Fair odds
- DET -131
- NO +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 23.4 – 21.5 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1564 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | DET: Jared Goff · NO: Derek Carr (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +63 Elo | DET 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 56.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DET | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 3226.7 | Points scored | 20.819th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3223.5 | Points allowed | 20.29th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+3.3 | Margin | +0.615th of 32 |
| 3rd of 325.92 | Yards per play | 5.0920th of 32 |
| 21st of 325.32 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1714th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 32 |
| 3rd of 324–1 | Road vs home | 2–218th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.