New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Saints- Derek CarrPassing24/38, 304 YDS, 1 INT
- Alvin KamaraRushing15 CAR, 69 YDS
- Chris OlaveReceiving7 REC, 114 YDS
Falcons- Desmond RidderPassing13/21, 168 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Bijan RobinsonRushing16 CAR, 91 YDS, 1 TD
- Drake LondonReceiving5 REC, 91 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:47Younghoe Koo 39 Yd Field Goal15–24
- Q46:24Blake Grupe 39 Yd Field Goal15–21
- Q49:57Bijan Robinson 26 Yd pass from Desmond Ridder (Younghoe Koo Kick)12–21
- Q33:27Blake Grupe 45 Yd Field Goal12–14
- Q23:54Blake Grupe 41 Yd Field Goal9–14
- Q28:56Bijan Robinson 10 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)6–14
- Q214:16Blake Grupe 52 Yd Field Goal6–7
- Q11:46Jessie Bates III 92 Yd Interception Return (Younghoe Koo Kick)3–7
- Q18:10Blake Grupe 25 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:46Jessie Bates III 92 Yd Interception Return (Younghoe Koo Kick)NO 3 – 7 ATL · ATL 37% → 57% +20ATL 37% → 57%+20 pts
- Q28:56Bijan Robinson 10 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)NO 6 – 14 ATL · ATL 49% → 70% +21ATL 49% → 70%+21 pts
- Q23:54Blake Grupe 41 Yd Field GoalNO 9 – 14 ATL · NO 28% → 37% +9NO 28% → 37%+9 pts
- Q33:27Blake Grupe 45 Yd Field GoalNO 12 – 14 ATL · NO 31% → 44% +13NO 31% → 44%+13 pts
- Q49:57Bijan Robinson 26 Yd pass from Desmond Ridder (Younghoe Koo Kick)NO 12 – 21 ATL · ATL 60% → 91% +31ATL 60% → 91%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Saints 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -2
- NO 58%
- Fair odds
- NO -122
- ATL +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 21.9 – 20.5 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1407 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +3 | NO: Derek Carr · ATL: Desmond Ridder (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +53 Elo | NO 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 54.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NO | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 3221.4 | Points scored | 18.924th of 32 |
| 8th of 3219.8 | Points allowed | 21.718th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+1.6 | Margin | −2.821st of 32 |
| 23rd of 324.94 | Yards per play | 5.1218th of 32 |
| 12th of 325.05 | Yards allowed per play | 5.039th of 32 |
| 10th of 323–3 | Road vs home | 3–214th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.