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Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons, NFL forecast

FinalFox

Away

Vikings

5-4

31–28

at

Home

Falcons

4-5

MIN 48%ATL 52%

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Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Fox

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.

ATL favored MIN favored13 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4ATL50%MIN

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Vikings
Falcons

Scoring summary

  • Q40:22Brandon Powell 6 Yd pass from Joshua Dobbs (Greg Joseph Kick)31–28
  • Q42:08Tyler Allgeier 5 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)24–28
  • Q414:18Greg Joseph 31 Yd Field Goal24–21
  • Q32:20Joshua Dobbs 18 Yd Run (Joshua Dobbs Pass to Trishton Jackson for Two-Point Conversion)21–21
  • Q36:54Jonnu Smith 60 Yd pass from Taylor Heinicke (Younghoe Koo Kick)13–21
  • Q38:13Greg Joseph 32 Yd Field Goal13–14
  • Q312:15Younghoe Koo 54 Yd Field Goal10–14
  • Q20:55Alexander Mattison 2 Yd pass from Joshua Dobbs (Greg Joseph Kick)10–11
  • Q25:32Younghoe Koo 23 Yd Field Goal3–11
  • Q28:57Younghoe Koo 43 Yd Field Goal3–8
  • Q214:04Joshua Dobbs sacked in end zone by Calais Campbell for a Safety3–5
  • Q12:20Greg Joseph 19 Yd Field Goal3–3
  • Q17:06Younghoe Koo 52 Yd Field Goal0–3

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q20:55Alexander Mattison 2 Yd pass from Joshua Dobbs (Greg Joseph Kick)MIN 10 – 11 ATL · MIN 23% → 45% +22
  2. Q36:54Jonnu Smith 60 Yd pass from Taylor Heinicke (Younghoe Koo Kick)MIN 13 – 21 ATL · ATL 56% → 81% +25
  3. Q32:20Joshua Dobbs 18 Yd Run (Joshua Dobbs Pass to Trishton Jackson for Two-Point Conversion)MIN 21 – 21 ATL · MIN 17% → 49% +32
  4. Q42:08Tyler Allgeier 5 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)MIN 24 – 28 ATL · ATL 16% → 91% +75
  5. Q40:22Brandon Powell 6 Yd pass from Joshua Dobbs (Greg Joseph Kick)MIN 31 – 28 ATL · MIN <1% → >99% +99

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.

Falcons 52%

Toss-upMiss
MIN 48%ATL 52%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
ATL 52%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
MIN -0.5
ATL 49%
Fair odds
ATL -110
MIN +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
MIN 20.5 – 21.2 ATL
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorMINATLWhy
Team rating15401441Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NFL
Quarterbacks−92−36MIN: Jaren Hall, usually Kirk Cousins · ATL: Taylor Heinicke, usually Desmond Ridder (against each team's recent starters, from the box score)
Elo ratingsMIN +7 EloMIN 51.0%
Market-implied ratingsATL 62.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastATL 52.4%75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.

Try another venue →
Minnesota Vikings and Atlanta Falcons compared, with each team's league rank
MINStatATL
14th of 3221.9Points scored17.328th of 32
15th of 3220.3Points allowed20.114th of 32
14th of 32+1.6Margin−2.922nd of 32
5th of 325.68Yards per play5.2214th of 32
10th of 324.97Yards allowed per play4.938th of 32
3rd of 323–1Road vs home3–16th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

VikingsFalcons
1350145015501650league averageSepDecMarJunSep

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.