Atlanta Falcons at Tennessee Titans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Falcons- Taylor HeinickePassing12/21, 175 YDS, 1 TD
- Bijan RobinsonRushing11 CAR, 62 YDS, 1 TD
- KhaDarel HodgeReceiving3 REC, 75 YDS
Titans- Will LevisPassing19/29, 238 YDS, 4 TD
- Derrick HenryRushing22 CAR, 101 YDS
- DeAndre HopkinsReceiving4 REC, 128 YDS, 3 TD
Scoring summary
- Q43:46Scott Miller 8 Yd pass from Taylor Heinicke (Younghoe Koo Kick)23–28
- Q46:59Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 33 Yd pass from Will Levis (Nick Folk Kick)16–28
- Q414:17Bijan Robinson 13 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)16–21
- Q31:37DeAndre Hopkins 61 Yd pass from Will Levis (Nick Folk Kick)9–21
- Q33:02Younghoe Koo 39 Yd Field Goal9–14
- Q312:06Younghoe Koo 49 Yd Field Goal6–14
- Q25:27DeAndre Hopkins 16 Yd pass from Will Levis (Nick Folk Kick)3–14
- Q12:28DeAndre Hopkins 47 Yd pass from Will Levis (Nick Folk Kick)3–7
- Q19:47Younghoe Koo 29 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:28DeAndre Hopkins 47 Yd pass from Will Levis (Nick Folk Kick)ATL 3 – 7 TEN · TEN 43% → 63% +19TEN 43% → 63%+19 pts
- Q25:27DeAndre Hopkins 16 Yd pass from Will Levis (Nick Folk Kick)ATL 3 – 14 TEN · TEN 64% → 83% +18TEN 64% → 83%+18 pts
- Q31:37DeAndre Hopkins 61 Yd pass from Will Levis (Nick Folk Kick)ATL 9 – 21 TEN · TEN 73% → 93% +19TEN 73% → 93%+19 pts
- Q414:17Bijan Robinson 13 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)ATL 16 – 21 TEN · ATL 6% → 25% +19ATL 6% → 25%+19 pts
- Q46:59Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 33 Yd pass from Will Levis (Nick Folk Kick)ATL 16 – 28 TEN · TEN 83% → 99% +16TEN 83% → 99%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Titans 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEN -0.5
- TEN 52%
- Fair odds
- TEN -108
- ATL +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 20.1 – 20.7 TEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | TEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | −18 | ATL: Desmond Ridder · TEN: Will Levis, usually Ryan Tannehill (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TEN +17 Elo | TEN 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEN 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEN 51.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ATL | Stat | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 3216.4 | Points scored | 17.325th of 32 |
| 9th of 3219.0 | Points allowed | 19.511th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−2.6 | Margin | −2.221st of 32 |
| 15th of 325.22 | Yards per play | 5.1118th of 32 |
| 6th of 324.81 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3820th of 32 |
| 12th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.