Los Angeles Chargers at Tennessee Titans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing27/41, 305 YDS, 2 TD
- Joshua KelleyRushing13 CAR, 39 YDS
- Keenan AllenReceiving8 REC, 111 YDS, 2 TD
Titans- Ryan TannehillPassing20/24, 246 YDS, 1 TD
- Derrick HenryRushing25 CAR, 80 YDS, 1 TD
- Treylon BurksReceiving3 REC, 76 YDS
Scoring summary
- OT5:02Nick Folk 41 Yd Field Goal24–27
- Q40:00Cameron Dicker 33 Yd Field Goal24–24
- Q42:22Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 4 Yd pass from Ryan Tannehill (Nick Folk Kick)21–24
- Q414:38Keenan Allen 12 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)21–17
- Q310:08Ryan Tannehill 12 Yd Run (Nick Folk Kick)14–17
- Q20:00Nick Folk 33 Yd Field Goal14–10
- Q24:23Cameron Dicker 30 Yd Field Goal14–7
- Q27:09Derrick Henry 1 Yd Run (Nick Folk Kick)11–7
- Q28:16Keenan Allen 8 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Justin Herbert Pass to Trey Pipkins III for Two-Point Conversion)11–0
- Q13:46Cameron Dicker 27 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:08Ryan Tannehill 12 Yd Run (Nick Folk Kick)LAC 14 – 17 TEN · TEN 39% → 65% +27TEN 39% → 65%+27 pts
- Q414:38Keenan Allen 12 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)LAC 21 – 17 TEN · LAC 32% → 67% +34LAC 32% → 67%+34 pts
- Q42:22Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 4 Yd pass from Ryan Tannehill (Nick Folk Kick)LAC 21 – 24 TEN · TEN 11% → 84% +73TEN 11% → 84%+73 pts
- Q40:00Cameron Dicker 33 Yd Field GoalLAC 24 – 24 TEN · LAC 0% → 48% +48LAC 0% → 48%+48 pts
- OT5:02Nick Folk 41 Yd Field GoalLAC 24 – 27 TEN · TEN 52% → 76% +24TEN 52% → 76%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Titans 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEN -2
- TEN 56%
- Fair odds
- TEN -127
- LAC +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 21.3 – 23.0 TEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | TEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | LAC: Justin Herbert · TEN: Ryan Tannehill (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TEN +44 Elo | TEN 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEN 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEN 56.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAC | Stat | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 3234.0 | Points scored | 15.026th of 32 |
| 30th of 3236.0 | Points allowed | 16.08th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−2.0 | Margin | −1.017th of 32 |
| 4th of 325.70 | Yards per play | 4.8315th of 32 |
| 32nd of 328.25 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4827th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Chargers: last 1