Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Titans- Ryan TannehillPassing16/34, 198 YDS, 3 INT
- Derrick HenryRushing15 CAR, 63 YDS
- DeAndre HopkinsReceiving7 REC, 65 YDS
Saints- Derek CarrPassing23/33, 305 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Jamaal WilliamsRushing18 CAR, 45 YDS
- Chris OlaveReceiving8 REC, 112 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:17Nick Folk 29 Yd Field Goal15–16
- Q411:12Nick Folk 45 Yd Field Goal12–16
- Q31:23Rashid Shaheed 19 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)9–16
- Q39:25Blake Grupe 52 Yd Field Goal9–9
- Q21:40Nick Folk 31 Yd Field Goal9–6
- Q27:37Blake Grupe 33 Yd Field Goal6–6
- Q13:07Nick Folk 27 Yd Field Goal6–3
- Q110:18Blake Grupe 26 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q113:40Nick Folk 50 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:40Nick Folk 31 Yd Field GoalTEN 9 – 6 NO · TEN 46% → 57% +10TEN 46% → 57%+10 pts
- Q39:25Blake Grupe 52 Yd Field GoalTEN 9 – 9 NO · NO 42% → 53% +12NO 42% → 53%+12 pts
- Q31:23Rashid Shaheed 19 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)TEN 9 – 16 NO · NO 53% → 82% +29NO 53% → 82%+29 pts
- Q411:12Nick Folk 45 Yd Field GoalTEN 12 – 16 NO · TEN 14% → 26% +12TEN 14% → 26%+12 pts
- Q42:17Nick Folk 29 Yd Field GoalTEN 15 – 16 NO · TEN 9% → 36% +27TEN 9% → 36%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Saints 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -1.5
- NO 55%
- Fair odds
- NO -123
- TEN +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEN 21.1 – 22.6 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEN | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | TEN: Ryan Tannehill · NO: Derek Carr (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +36 Elo | NO 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 55.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
No earlier games in the window.