Parlay
What your parlay is really worth
Every leg has to win. Legs from different games multiply; legs from the same game move together, and the chance here accounts for that. See the real chance of cashing, the fair price for it and what the book pays before you place it, then track how it went.
Add a player prop
Your parlay is empty
- 1Add legsPlayer props from the props board, any game page or the search above; a team to win from any game with a line.
- 2See the real chanceEach leg at the book’s number with its margin out, and legs from one game figured together.
- 3Track it and sweat itGraded from the box score, with a live chance to cash while the games are on.
Your tracked parlays
While a game is on, each leg shows its stat so far and its chance to hit, updated every minute; once it's final, the leg is graded from the box score. Open the sweat to replay a parlay's chance to cash play by play. Saved in this browser only.
Track a parlay above and it's graded here once its games end, next to the chance it had.
How the same-game chances were tested
How strongly legs move together was fitted on the earlier half of each league's games with graded prop lines. Then random same-game parlays on the later half, games the fit never saw, were priced both ways and checked against what happened.
NBA
Fitted on 875 games, tested on the next 876
| Parlays | n | Hit | Multiplied | Same-game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legs that move together | 7,814 | 34.4% | 20.1% | 33.7% |
| Legs that pull apart | 577 | 5.0% | 13.5% | 4.8% |
| All of them | 31,168 | 24.2% | 20.1% | 23.8% |
NHL
Fitted on 1,046 games, tested on the next 1,046
| Parlays | n | Hit | Multiplied | Same-game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legs that move together | 13,403 | 18.5% | 9.1% | 18.7% |
| Legs that pull apart | 663 | 2.9% | 6.9% | 3.8% |
| All of them | 43,734 | 17.8% | 14.8% | 17.7% |
NFL
Fitted on 233 games, tested on the next 234
| Parlays | n | Hit | Multiplied | Same-game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legs that move together | 2,369 | 34.5% | 22.9% | 35.8% |
| Legs that pull apart | 289 | 5.2% | 12.6% | 7.3% |
| All of them | 7,627 | 22.7% | 20.1% | 24.0% |
Multiplying undercounts parlays whose legs move together (a player's points with his points + rebounds + assists) by nearly half, and overcounts legs that pull apart. The same-game chances landed close to what happened in every league. The one kind they didn't improve in the NBA and NFL was a team to win with two of its players' overs, which came out about even. The table on the site is fitted on every graded game. Like every chance here, these are the books' own numbers with their margin removed, then combined: insight, not a way to beat the price.
How the live chances were tested
Each player's stats were rebuilt quarter by quarter (NBA, NFL) and period by period (NHL) from play-by-play for every graded game, kept only where they add up to the box score: 101,368 NBA lines, 152,849 NHL lines and 16,721 NFL lines.
| League | Break | Legs | Pregame chance | Live chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | After Q1 | 51,407 | 0.686 | 0.611 |
| NBA | Halftime | 47,899 | 0.685 | 0.526 |
| NBA | After Q3 | 39,081 | 0.679 | 0.439 |
| NHL | After P1 | 72,303 | 0.520 | 0.493 |
| NHL | After P2 | 63,181 | 0.458 | 0.359 |
| NFL | After Q1 | 8,601 | 0.689 | 0.641 |
| NFL | Halftime | 7,705 | 0.689 | 0.561 |
| NFL | After Q3 | 6,510 | 0.687 | 0.466 |
Log loss of legs still open at each break, on games the fit never saw (lower is better; 0.693 is a coin flip). From the pregame chance and the stat at each break, the live chance reads the rest of the game as the pregame pace scaled to the time left, with a little of a hot start carried over and less left for everyone in a blowout. Its numbers held up: NBA legs at halftime given about 17% hit 16%, about 49% hit 49%, about 82% hit 79%; NFL legs at halftime given about 19% hit 19%, about 49% hit 52%. In the NHL the fitted touches added almost nothing beyond the time left. In the NFL the score matters too: a team behind throws more and runs less, and leaning on that beat leaving it out at halftime (0.574 → 0.561) and after the third quarter (0.489 → 0.466). A yardage over already past its line can still lose yards, but 99.6% of them held. Same-game legs mid-game combine through the same correlations as before game time, which did slightly better than multiplying in every league.