2026 · Offseason

MLB predictions

0 games in the next 4 days · model updated 12:48 AM ET

Updated 12:48 AM ET

Games

The filled side of each bar is the pick. Tap a game for the full breakdown.

No MLB games in the next 4 days. Ratings and the track record below stay current.

Power rankings

Elo from results: 1500 is average, and 100 points is about a 64% favorite on a neutral field. Market is the same scale, learned from closing lines.

#	Team	Elo	Season	Market
1	Brewers103-59	1595	+53	1560 #2
2	Dodgers100-62	1567	+16	1570 #1
3	Yankees93-68	1552	+15	1529 #4
4	Padres91-71	1541	+16	1523 #10
5	Rays98-64	1540	+42	1530 #3
6	Cubs89-73	1538	+9	1525 #8
7	Red Sox87-75	1529	+6	1525 #7
8	Braves94-68	1528	+22	1528 #5
9	Phillies88-74	1527	−12	1526 #6
10	Diamondbacks86-76	1511	+5	1523 #9
11	Guardians85-77	1511	0	1508 #13
12	Tigers76-86	1506	+5	1502 #15
13	Blue Jays79-83	1505	−29	1500 #17
14	Pirates82-80	1502	+19	1497 #19
15	Mets74-88	1500	−10	1496 #20
16	White Sox84-78	1499	+48	1500 #16
17	Orioles79-82	1499	+10	1505 #14
18	Astros81-81	1495	−12	1513 #11
19	Marlins80-82	1495	+11	1490 #21
20	Rangers80-82	1489	−19	1509 #12
21	Mariners76-86	1484	−39	1499 #18
22	Cardinals77-85	1481	+1	1486 #22
23	Nationals77-85	1475	+27	1477 #25
24	Twins77-85	1472	0	1484 #23
25	Reds75-87	1467	−37	1464 #26
26	Royals69-93	1466	−39	1480 #24
27	Giants65-97	1465	−36	1435 #29
28	Angels62-100	1439	−12	1459 #27
29	Athletics64-98	1426	−58	1436 #28
30	Rockies58-104	1399	−1	1421 #30

Ratings vs. the line

Biggest gaps between our Elo ratings and the market. The market has been the more accurate of the two.

No lines are posted for upcoming games yet.

Recent results

Latest graded picks.

MIL 4 @ TB 1

Final

MIL 59%

Hit

MIL 3 @ TB 4

Final/12

MIL 54%

Miss

MIL 10 @ TB 1

Final

TB 52%

Miss

TB 4 @ MIL 5

Final

MIL 52%

Hit

TB 2 @ MIL 3

Final

MIL 63%

Hit

CLE 3 @ TB 7

Final

TB 58%

Hit

TB 3 @ CLE 1

Final

TB 55%

Hit

TB 7 @ CLE 3

Final

TB 50%

Hit

MIL 6 @ LAD 4

Final

LAD 59%

Miss

TB 2 @ CLE 3

Final

CLE 55%

Hit

MIL 6 @ LAD 2

Final

LAD 62%

Miss

CLE 1 @ TB 3

Final

TB 55%

Hit

Team stats

This season, regular season. Sort by any column. Opp. Elo is how strong the teams each has played are. Home and road leave out neutral-site games.

#	Team
1	MILBrewers	+1.3	5.1	3.8	55–25	48–33	8–2	1497
2	LADDodgers	+1.2	4.9	3.7	51–30	49–32	8–2	1495
3	CHCCubs	+0.9	5.2	4.3	46–35	42–38	5–5	1502
4	NYYYankees	+0.9	4.6	3.7	46–34	47–34	5–5	1499
5	ATLBraves	+0.7	4.6	3.9	52–29	41–39	5–5	1501
6	TBRays	+0.5	4.5	4.0	55–26	43–38	5–5	1500
7	BOSRed Sox	+0.5	4.3	3.8	41–39	46–35	5–5	1501
8	DETTigers	+0.4	4.5	4.0	42–39	34–47	4–6	1496
9	CHWWhite Sox	+0.3	4.8	4.4	48–33	36–45	7–3	1497
10	SDPadres	+0.3	4.5	4.2	51–30	39–40	8–2	1497
11	PITPirates	+0.2	4.7	4.6	44–37	38–43	7–3	1505
12	PHIPhillies	+0.1	4.4	4.3	43–38	44–36	4–6	1501
13	CLEGuardians	+0.1	4.2	4.1	41–40	44–37	8–2	1495
14	ARIDiamondbacks	+0.1	4.6	4.5	44–35	41–40	6–4	1500
15	WSHNationals	0.0	5.1	5.0	39–42	38–43	6–4	1504
16	MIAMarlins	0.0	4.4	4.4	47–34	33–48	5–5	1503
17	BALOrioles	−0.1	4.5	4.6	39–42	40–40	6–4	1503
18	STLCardinals	−0.2	4.4	4.6	38–43	39–42	2–8	1506
19	HOUAstros	−0.2	4.5	4.7	39–42	42–39	5–5	1490
20	NYMMets	−0.2	4.3	4.5	36–45	38–43	5–5	1504
21	TEXRangers	−0.3	4.2	4.4	45–36	35–46	4–6	1492
22	TORBlue Jays	−0.3	4.0	4.3	42–39	37–44	4–6	1504
23	SEAMariners	−0.4	4.1	4.5	43–38	33–48	6–4	1493
24	MINTwins	−0.4	4.6	4.9	42–38	35–46	6–4	1500
25	SFGiants	−0.6	4.1	4.7	37–44	28–53	2–8	1503
26	LAAAngels	−0.6	4.0	4.6	34–47	28–53	4–6	1497
27	KCRoyals	−0.7	4.3	5.0	41–40	28–53	2–8	1498
28	CINReds	−1.0	4.1	5.1	38–43	37–44	4–6	1509
29	COLRockies	−1.2	4.6	5.8	32–49	26–55	2–8	1509
30	ATHAthletics	−1.5	4.3	5.8	32–49	32–49	3–7	1496

Season projections

Projected records and playoff odds from simulating the rest of the season.

The 2026 season is over: the Milwaukee Brewers won the World Series. Projections for next season start once its schedule is out.

Track record

Every MLB game since 2024, graded against the forecast the app would have shown beforehand. 57.0% correct overall.

Forecast correct

57.0%

4,231 of 7,418 · Brier 0.242

Before the line

56.4%

Every game as if no line were posted · Brier 0.242

Elo ratings alone

56.4%

Brier 0.243 · same games

Betting market alone

57.1%

Closing line on file for 100% of games

Always picking home

53.1%

The no-skill baseline

Calibration

When the forecast says 65%, does that team win about 65% of the time?

Show as table

Confidence	Games	Stated	Won
50%–55%	2,871	52.3%	52.7%
55%–60%	2,596	57.3%	55.5%
60%–65%	1,194	62.3%	61.6%
65%–70%	518	67.1%	69.7%
70%–75%	209	71.7%	75.6%
75%–80%	30	76.1%	76.7%

By confidence

Confidence	Games	Won
Strong 70%+ win probability	239	75.7%
Solid 62–70%	1,185	65.9%
Lean 55–62%	3,123	56.3%
Toss-up Under 55%	2,871	52.7%

By season

Season	Games	Correct	Brier
2024	2,472	57.1%	0.241
2025	2,477	56.7%	0.242
2026	2,469	57.3%	0.243