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Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast

FinalMIL wins series 4-0

Away

Brewers

103-59

6–4

at

Home

Dodgers

100-62

MIL 41%LAD 59%

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Dodger Stadium · FS1

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.

LAD75%50%75%MILStart12345678Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Brewers
  • David HamiltonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
  • Dustin MayPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Dodgers
  • Shohei OhtaniBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
  • Tyler GlasnowPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 K

Scoring summary

  • 9Hamilton homered to right center (402 feet).6–4
  • 6Mitchell homered to center (409 feet).5–4
  • 5Bauers walked, Hamilton scored, Contreras to second, Turang to third.4–4
  • 5Hamilton singled to center, Frelick scored.3–4
  • 4Bauers hit a ground rule double to right, Contreras scored and Turang scored.2–4
  • 2Ohtani homered to right center (428 feet), T. Hernández scored and Pages scored.0–4
  • 2Pages singled to center, Tucker scored, T. Hernández to second.0–1

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Dodgers 59%

LeanMiss
MIL 41%LAD 59%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.

Market
LAD 59%
ML MIL +135 / LAD -151
Pre-line forecast
LAD 60%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
LAD 54%
Ratings vs. market
−4.9 pts
LAD: Elo 53.7%, market 58.6%
Fair odds
LAD -141
MIL +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
MIL 3.6 – 4.4 LAD
Margin from the forecast, posted total 8

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorMILLADWhy
Team rating15881568Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers−22+5MIL: Shane Drohan: team allows 1.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LAD: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsLAD +25 EloLAD 53.7%
Market-implied ratingsLAD 60.9%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastLAD 59.9%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastLAD 58.6%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

Try another venue →
Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers compared, with each team's league rank
MILStatLAD
2nd of 305.1Runs scored4.94th of 30
4th of 303.8Runs allowed3.71st of 30
1st of 30+1.3Margin+1.22nd of 30
1st of 308–2Last 108–21st of 30
2nd of 3048–33Road vs home51–304th of 30
22nd of 301497Opponent Elo149526th of 30
1st of 301588Elo rating15682nd of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

BrewersDodgers
1500155016001650AprAugDecAprAug

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonMILLAD
Run line90–7978–91
Last 106–46–4
Favorite60–6768–88
Underdog30–1210–3
Overs–unders75–87–773–90–6
Overs–unders, last 104–5–12–7–1

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

MIL 17–16 LAD in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 33.