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Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast

FinalLAD win series 3-1

Away

Dodgers

100-62

4–1

at

Home

Braves

94-68

LAD 57%ATL 43%

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Truist Park · FS1

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.

ATL75%50%75%LADStart12345678Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Dodgers
  • Max MuncyBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
  • Tyler GlasnowPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Braves
  • Michael Harris IIBatting2-3
  • Tyler MahlePitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K

Scoring summary

  • 9Muncy homered to right (389 feet).4–1
  • 7Pages singled to center, Edman scored and T. Hernández scored, Tucker to third.3–1
  • 2Ohtani scored on error, Muncy safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Dubón.1–1
  • 1Harris II scored on Glasnow wild pitch.0–1
  • 1Harris II scored on Glasnow wild pitch.0–1

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Dodgers 57%

LeanHit
LAD 57%ATL 43%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.

Market
LAD 57%
ML LAD -148 / ATL +122
Pre-line forecast
LAD 55%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
LAD 54%
Ratings vs. market
−3.4 pts
LAD: Elo 53.6%, market 57.0%
Fair odds
LAD -132
ATL +132 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
LAD 4.1 – 3.4 ATL
Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorLADATLWhy
Team rating15721530Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers+5+4LAD: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Tyler Mahle: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsLAD +25 EloLAD 53.6%
Market-implied ratingsLAD 54.9%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastLAD 54.7%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastLAD 57.0%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

Try another venue →
Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves compared, with each team's league rank
LADStatATL
4th of 304.9Runs scored4.69th of 30
1st of 303.7Runs allowed3.95th of 30
2nd of 30+1.2Margin+0.75th of 30
1st of 308–2Last 105–512th of 30
1st of 3049–32Road vs home52–293rd of 30
27th of 301495Opponent Elo150113th of 30
2nd of 301572Elo rating15307th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

DodgersBraves
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJulOct

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonLADATL
Run line76–8991–77
Last 106–44–6
Favorite67–8652–59
Underdog9–339–18
Overs–unders71–88–676–82–10
Overs–unders, last 100–9–14–4–2

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

LAD 16–13 ATL in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 29.