Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Braves- Drake BaldwinBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Tyler MahlePitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Bohm homered to right (357 feet).4–3
- 8Harper homered to right center (418 feet).3–3
- 8Schwarber homered to right center (447 feet).2–3
- 7Olson hit sacrifice fly to center, Kim scored, Baldwin to third.1–3
- 7Baldwin doubled to right, Murphy scored, Kim to third.1–2
- 1Olson singled to right, Acuña Jr. scored.1–1
- 1Harper singled to left, Turner scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 52%
- ML PHI -117 / ATL -103
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- PHI: Elo 47.2%, market 51.5%
- Fair odds
- PHI -106
- ATL +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.6 – 3.4 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +3 | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Tyler Mahle: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +20 Elo | ATL 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 51.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 5th of 3044–36 | Road vs home | 52–293rd of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 9th of 301528 | Elo rating | 15318th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–90 | 89–74 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 54–66 | 51–57 |
| Underdog | 19–24 | 38–17 |
| Overs–unders | 77–77–9 | 75–79–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 26–31 ATL in their last 57 meetings; the forecast called 35 of 57.