Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Sean MurphyBatting1-3
- Grant HolmesPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Marlins- Griffin ConineBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Eury PerezPitching9.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Conine homered to left center (402 feet).0–3
- 8Hernández singled to center, Marsee scored.0–2
- 7Mack homered to right center (428 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 51%
- ML ATL -115 / MIA -105
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- ATL: Elo 50.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- ATL -104
- MIA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.0 – 4.0 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −22 | −4 | ATL: Ray Kerr: team allows 1.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL 0 Elo | ATL 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.7 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 9th of 3040–37 | Road vs home | 45–337th of 30 |
| 10th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15039th of 30 |
| 9th of 301530 | Elo rating | 149319th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 87–72 | 80–79 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 50–57 | 29–37 |
| Underdog | 37–15 | 51–42 |
| Overs–unders | 73–78–8 | 81–74–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 34–15 MIA in their last 49 meetings; the forecast called 32 of 49.