Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon WilliamsonPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Braves- Drake BaldwinBatting2-3
- JR RitchiePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Suárez homered to center (415 feet).4–0
- 7De La Cruz singled to left, McLain scored.3–0
- 6Myers homered to center (410 feet).2–0
- 3De La Cruz homered to right (368 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 67%
- ML CIN +194 / ATL -239
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.8 pts
- ATL: Elo 58.7%, market 67.5%
- Fair odds
- ATL -207
- CIN +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.9 – 5.6 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −21 | CIN: Brandon Williamson: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: JR Ritchie: team allows 1.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +61 Elo | ATL 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 61.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 60.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 67.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.68th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 19th of 3034–41 | Road vs home | 51–273rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 27th of 301463 | Elo rating | 15349th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–81 | 87–69 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–30 | 50–54 |
| Underdog | 59–51 | 37–15 |
| Overs–unders | 82–70–4 | 72–76–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4–2 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 8–14 ATL in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 22.