Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Mauricio DubonBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- JR RitchiePitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Cubs- Pete Crow-ArmstrongBatting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9S. Murphy grounded out to shortstop, Harris II scored, Dubón to third.4–8
- 9Dubón doubled to right, Albies scored, Harris II to third.3–8
- 8Conforto singled to right, Taylor scored.2–8
- 7Crow-Armstrong homered to right center (394 feet).2–7
- 7Riley grounded out to third, Dubón scored.2–6
- 6Olson grounded out to pitcher, Acuña Jr. scored.1–6
- 5Bregman tripled to left, Crow-Armstrong scored and Suzuki scored.0–6
- 5Crow-Armstrong tripled to right, Kelly scored.0–4
- 4Bregman homered to left (376 feet).0–3
- 3Crow-Armstrong homered to right (376 feet).0–2
- 1Bregman doubled to center, Busch scored, Bregman out stretching at third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 60%
- ML ATL +140 / CHC -170
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- CHC: Elo 58.3%, market 60.2%
- Fair odds
- CHC -151
- ATL +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.3 – 4.2 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | +10 | ATL: JR Ritchie: team allows 0.84 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +58 Elo | CHC 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 59.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 60.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.31st of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.412th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.93rd of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 9th of 3037–36 | Road vs home | 44–338th of 30 |
| 10th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 8th of 301530 | Elo rating | 15434th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 84–68 | 75–77 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 49–54 | 40–61 |
| Underdog | 35–14 | 35–16 |
| Overs–unders | 70–75–7 | 82–61–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–2–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 13–10 CHC in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 23.