Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Khristian CurtisPitching3.0 IP, 6 ER, 0 K
Cubs- Alex BregmanBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Crow-Armstrong singled to right, Ramirez scored, Kelly to second.2–12
- 6Taylor hit sacrifice fly to right, Busch scored.2–11
- 6Busch singled to center, Suzuki scored.2–10
- 6Reynolds homered to left (364 feet).2–9
- 4Bregman homered to left (371 feet), Suzuki scored.1–9
- 4Busch hit sacrifice fly to shortstop, Crow-Armstrong scored.1–7
- 4Suzuki singled to right, Kelly scored, Crow-Armstrong to third.1–6
- 3Hoerner hit into fielder's choice to right, Busch scored, Happ out at second.1–5
- 3Busch doubled to right, Suzuki scored on error, Busch safe at third on throwing error by right fielder Valdez.1–4
- 2Kelly doubled to left, Happ scored and Ramirez scored.1–3
- 2Conforto hit sacrifice fly to left, Bregman scored.1–1
- 1Cruz singled to left, Griffin scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 63%
- ML PIT +156 / CHC -189
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- CHC: Elo 59.6%, market 62.6%
- Fair odds
- CHC -167
- PIT +167 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.7 – 4.8 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +7 | PIT: Wilber Dotel (no track record yet) · CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +67 Elo | CHC 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 60.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 62.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.31st of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.94th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 14th of 3036–39 | Road vs home | 41–319th of 30 |
| 5th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15019th of 30 |
| 13th of 301502 | Elo rating | 15414th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–81 | 73–74 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 27–51 | 38–58 |
| Underdog | 39–30 | 35–16 |
| Overs–unders | 75–66–6 | 79–60–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 17–32 CHC in their last 49 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 49.