Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ben BrownPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Pirates- Henry DavisBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Carmen MlodzinskiPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Davis homered to left (413 feet).1–2
- 5Busch homered to center (409 feet).1–1
- 3Lowe doubled to left, Horwitz scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 53%
- ML CHC -123 / PIT +102
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- CHC: Elo 51.5%, market 52.7%
- Fair odds
- CHC -111
- PIT +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.4 – 4.1 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +5 | CHC: Ben Brown: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PIT: Carmen Mlodzinski: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +11 Elo | CHC 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 52.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.85th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.47th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 15th of 3011–13 | Road vs home | 13–1319th of 30 |
| 5th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 149720th of 30 |
| 5th of 301527 | Elo rating | 149215th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–32 | 26–27 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–22 | 12–15 |
| Underdog | 8–10 | 14–12 |
| Overs–unders | 27–21–5 | 27–24–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 28–14 PIT in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 42.