Houston Astros at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Nick AllenBatting3-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Peter LambertPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching6.0 IP, 7 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Allen singled to right, Smith scored.8–5
- 7Busch homered to left center (378 feet), Crow-Armstrong scored.7–5
- 5Walker homered to left center (426 feet), Allen scored and Peña scored.7–3
- 5Peña singled to center, Dezenzo scored and Smith scored, Allen to third.4–3
- 3Allen homered to left (367 feet).2–3
- 2Hoerner singled to right, Ramirez scored.1–3
- 2Crow-Armstrong hit sacrifice fly to center, Kelly scored, Ramirez to third.1–2
- 2Ramirez doubled to right, Ballesteros scored, Kelly to third.1–1
- 2Meyers homered to left (388 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 60%
- ML HOU +139 / CHC -168
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- CHC: Elo 59.3%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- CHC -150
- HOU +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.1 – 3.9 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −3 | HOU: Peter Lambert: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +66 Elo | CHC 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 62.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 62.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.46th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3010–17 | Road vs home | 18–104th of 30 |
| 25th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 15085th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301483 | Elo rating | 15295th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–31 | 21–31 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 5–12 | 13–21 |
| Underdog | 17–19 | 8–10 |
| Overs–unders | 28–22–3 | 26–21–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–7–2 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 7–4 CHC in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.