Houston Astros at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Spencer ArrighettiPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Altuve homered to left (390 feet).3–4
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 22–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 3Bregman reached on infield single to second, Caratini scored, Meyers to second.2–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 3Meyers sacrificed to pitcher, Singleton scored, Meyers to first on error by first baseman Busch, Caratini to third.1–4
- 1Swanson homered to left (369 feet), Happ scored and Morel scored.0–4
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Busch hit sacrifice fly to center, Hoerner scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 50%
- ML HOU -110 / CHC -110
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.3 pts
- CHC: Elo 57.3%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- CHC -100
- HOU -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.0 – 4.0 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +2 | HOU: Spencer Arrighetti: team allows 0.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +51 Elo | CHC 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.54th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +1.08th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 28th of 303–8 | Road vs home | 8–32nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–16 | 16–7 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 5–14 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 10–4 |
| Overs–unders | 8–13–3 | 11–11–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5–2 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 3–1 CHC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.