Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jesus SanchezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Bell grounded out to second, Fortes scored, Chisholm Jr. to second, De La Cruz to third.6–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging6–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 26–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 5Chisholm Jr. singled to left, Arraez scored, De La Cruz to second.5–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 34–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 24–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 4Bellinger singled to left, Canario scored, Bellinger to second, Hoerner to third.4–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Hoerner doubled to right, Tauchman scored, Canario to third.4–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 4Rivera grounded into fielder's choice to second, J. Sánchez scored, Gordon out at second.4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Anderson singled to right, Bell scored, J. Sánchez to second.3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4J. Sánchez singled to right, Chisholm Jr. scored, Bell to third.2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Hoerner singled to left, Tauchman scored, Amaya to third.1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2J. Sánchez homered to center (460 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 53%
- ML MIA +105 / CHC -125
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- CHC: Elo 53.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CHC -114
- MIA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.1 – 4.4 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −30 | MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHC: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 1.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +22 Elo | CHC 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 5.56th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.9 | Margin | +1.08th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–6 | Road vs home | 7–21st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–16 | 15–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–9 | 5–2 |
| Underdog | 6–7 | 10–4 |
| Overs–unders | 12–9–1 | 10–10–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 5–4 CHC in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.