Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Bryan De La CruzBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Cubs- Patrick WisdomBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Javier AssadPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9De La Cruz homered to left center (397 feet), Arraez scored.3–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 5De La Cruz hit sacrifice fly to left, Rivera scored, Bruján to third.1–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 3Wisdom tripled to right, Canario scored and Hoerner scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 59%
- ML MIA +135 / CHC -159
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- CHC: Elo 60.7%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- CHC -144
- MIA +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.6 – 4.4 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +5 | MIA: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Javier Assad: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +75 Elo | CHC 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 5.74th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−2.0 | Margin | +1.17th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–5 | Road vs home | 6–11st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–15 | 14–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 0–9 | 4–1 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 10–4 |
| Overs–unders | 12–8 | 10–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 4–3 CHC in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.