San Francisco Giants at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Jung Hoo LeeBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Kyle HarrisonPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Marlins- Avisail GarciaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 7Flores singled to center, Ahmed scored, Lee to second.4–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 7Lee singled to left, Yastrzemski scored, Ahmed to third.3–3
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 7Bailey hit sacrifice fly to left, Estrada scored.2–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 4Conforto singled to right, Lee scored, Soler to second.1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 2De La Cruz doubled to left, Arraez scored on error and Lopez scored, De La Cruz safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Ahmed.0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2García homered to left center (400 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 51%
- ML SF -115 / MIA -105
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- SF: Elo 44.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- SF -104
- MIA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.3 – 4.2 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +15 | SF: Kyle Harrison: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +37 Elo | MIA 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.823rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 5.929th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −2.229th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Road vs home | 1–930th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–9 | 4–12 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 0–7 |
| Underdog | 6–4 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 10–6 | 10–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 3–3 MIA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.