Miami Marlins at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jorge SolerBatting4-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 8 K
Giants- J.D. DavisBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Alex WoodPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Berti reached on infield single to catcher, Wendle scored on throwing error by catcher Bailey.5–7
- 9Berti reached on infield single to catcher, Wendle scored on throwing error by catcher Bailey.5–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 24–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–7
- 8Schmitt singled to left, Haniger scored.4–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–6
- 6Bailey sacrificed to pitcher, Haniger scored, Schmitt to second.4–6
- 6Haniger singled to right, Davis scored.4–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 5Soler singled to left, Edwards scored, Berti to third.4–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 4Fortes homered to left (397 feet).3–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 3Davis homered to center (433 feet), Estrada scored.2–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 3Estrada doubled to left, Johnson scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Soler singled to right, Berti scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Bailey homered to left center (423 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 53%
- Fair odds
- SF -109
- MIA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.1 – 4.3 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +10 | MIA: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.72 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · SF: Alex Wood: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +18 Elo | SF 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −0.420th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 16th of 3010–11 | Road vs home | 14–1112th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 3–2 SF in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.