Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Giants- Michael ConfortoBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Alex CobbPitching3.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Schwarber homered to center (413 feet).3–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 4Wade Jr. singled to left, Bart scored, Wade Jr. to second.2–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 4Bart doubled to second, Schmitt scored.2–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 4Clemens scored on a balk, Stott to second on a balk.2–2
- 4Clemens scored on a balk, Stott to second on a balk.2–2
- 4Stott singled to right, Marsh scored, Clemens to third.1–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 3Conforto singled to left, Wade Jr. scored, Estrada to second.0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3Estrada singled to center, Sabol scored, Wade Jr. to third.0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 52%
- Fair odds
- SF -109
- PHI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.5 – 4.7 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +14 | PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · SF: Alex Cobb: team allows 0.71 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +15 Elo | SF 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 5.024th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.621st of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 25th of 309–14 | Road vs home | 11–1017th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 0–1 SF in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.