San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Joc PedersonBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ross StriplingPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Diamondbacks- Dominic FletcherBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Schmitt doubled to right, Pederson scored, Conforto to third.5–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–7
- 7Gurriel Jr. doubled to center, Rojas scored.4–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–6
- 6Moreno scored, Fletcher to third on passed ball by Sabol.4–6
- 6Moreno scored, Fletcher to third on passed ball by Sabol.4–6
- 6Fletcher doubled to center, Ahmed scored, Moreno to third.4–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–5
- 5Davis singled to center, Wade Jr. scored.4–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 3Longoria homered to left (404 feet).3–4
- 3Pitch 9 : Ball In Play3–4
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball 33–3
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball 23–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 2Fletcher homered to center (428 feet), Gurriel Jr. scored and Ahmed scored.3–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 2Conforto homered to center (418 feet).3–0
- 2Pitch 12 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 11 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball 32–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 51%
- Fair odds
- ARI -111
- SF +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.6 – 4.8 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −24 | SF: John Brebbia: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 1.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +4 Elo | ARI 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.18th of 30 |
| 22nd of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.023rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 21st of 307–8 | Road vs home | 11–1015th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 1–0 ARI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.