Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jesus SanchezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Diamondbacks- Pavin SmithBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Wendle doubled to left, De La Cruz scored.5–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–4
- 5Hampson singled to left, Burdick scored.4–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 4Thomas grounded out to shortstop, Smith scored, Perdomo to third.3–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 23–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 13–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 4Perdomo singled to right, Gurriel Jr. scored, Smith to third.3–3
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking3–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 33–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 4Carroll scored, Smith to second, Gurriel Jr. to third on balk.3–2
- 4Carroll scored, Smith to second, Gurriel Jr. to third.3–2
- 4Smith walked, Marte scored, Gurriel Jr. to second, Carroll to third.3–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 43–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 33–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4Sánchez homered to center (441 feet), Soler scored and Arraez scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 59%
- Fair odds
- ARI -117
- MIA +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.5 – 4.9 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +14 | MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.72 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +63 Elo | ARI 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 5.27th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.5 | Margin | +0.316th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 20th of 308–10 | Road vs home | 11–810th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 3–2 ARI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.