Arizona Diamondbacks at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Marlins- Garrett CooperBatting1-4
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 6Carroll homered to center (414 feet), Walker scored.5–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 6Walker doubled to center, Smith scored.3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 6Smith singled to right, Rojas scored.2–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 12–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 2Thomas singled to center, Carroll scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 49%
- Fair odds
- MIA -109
- ARI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.3 – 4.5 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −9 | ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +6 Elo | ARI 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.330th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.716th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.5 | Margin | −1.425th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 24th of 303–5 | Road vs home | 5–413th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 0–2 MIA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.