Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting1-3
- Wade MileyPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Diamondbacks- Christian WalkerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 5Walker homered to right center (380 feet), Marte scored.0–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Rojas singled to center, Marte scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 49%
- Fair odds
- ARI -107
- MIL +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.8 – 4.9 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | −3 | MIL: Wade Miley: team allows 0.71 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +8 Elo | MIL 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 5.010th of 30 |
| 2nd of 302.6 | Runs allowed | 5.322nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+2.8 | Margin | −0.318th of 30 |
| 5th of 302–1 | Road vs home | 3–13rd of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.