Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dustin MayPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Diamondbacks- Josh RojasBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7McCarthy scored.5–2
- 7McCarthy scored.5–2
- 7Freeman homered to left center (396 feet).5–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 6Rojas doubled to right, Perdomo scored.4–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 6Outman singled to right, Smith scored, Peralta to third.4–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 33–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 3Martinez doubled to left, Muncy scored, Martinez thrown out at third.3–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 12–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 3Muncy grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop first, Freeman scored, Muncy to first on fielding error by pitcher M. Kelly, Smith out at second.2–0
- 3Muncy grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop first, Freeman scored, Muncy to first on fielding error by pitcher M. Kelly, Smith out at second.2–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Taylor singled to left, Muncy scored, Outman to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 52%
- Fair odds
- ARI -110
- LAD +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.4 – 4.7 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +17 | LAD: Dustin May: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.84 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +11 Elo | ARI 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| LAD | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 306.3 | Runs scored | 3.225th of 30 |
| 2nd of 302.2 | Runs allowed | 5.220th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+4.2 | Margin | −2.024th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 2–2 ARI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.