Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Kyle LewisBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Drey JamesonPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dustin MayPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Lewis homered to left center (383 feet), Longoria scored.2–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 7Betts homered to left center (384 feet).0–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 53%
- Fair odds
- LAD -112
- ARI +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.4 – 4.6 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | ARI: Merrill Kelly (no track record yet) · LAD: Dustin May (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +23 Elo | LAD 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 302.0 | Runs scored | 8.06th of 30 |
| 25th of 308.0 | Runs allowed | 2.08th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−6.0 | Margin | +6.01st of 30 |
| 9th of 150–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 15 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Diamondbacks: last 1
Dodgers: last 1
Head to head
ARI 0–1 LAD in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.