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Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
FinalMLB Opening Day
ARI 47%LAD 53%
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Dodger Stadium
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Christian WalkerBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Dodgers- Will SmithBatting3-4, 4 RBI
- Julio UriasPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Smith hit sacrifice fly to center, Outman scored.2–8
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–8
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 32–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–7
- 6Outman homered to left center (390 feet), Vargas scored.2–7
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging2–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 32–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 5Peralta singled to left, Smith scored, Martinez thrown out at third.2–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Martinez singled to right, Freeman scored, Smith to second.2–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 12–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 5Smith singled to right, Betts scored, Freeman to third.2–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 3Smith singled to right, Outman scored and Rojas scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 2Moreno hit sacrifice fly to center, Ahmed scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Walker singled to left, Marte scored, Gurriel Jr. to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 53%
Toss-upHit
ARI 47%LAD 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 53%
- Fair odds
- LAD -111
- ARI +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.5 – 4.7 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | ARI: Zac Gallen (no track record yet) · LAD: Julio Urias (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +18 Elo | LAD 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
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Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
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