Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Christian WalkerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Madison BumgarnerPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Dodgers- Trayce ThompsonBatting3-4, 3 HR, 8 RBI
- Clayton KershawPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Thompson homered to center (440 feet).1–10
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–9
- 7Martinez homered to right center (409 feet).1–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–9
- 5Thompson homered to center (417 feet), Martinez scored and Vargas scored.1–8
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 2Walker homered to left (398 feet).1–5
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–5
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 1Thompson homered to center (406 feet), Freeman scored, Muncy scored and Vargas scored.0–5
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–5
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 1Taylor hit sacrifice fly to right, Betts scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 53%
- Fair odds
- LAD -111
- ARI +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.4 – 4.6 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | ARI: Madison Bumgarner (no track record yet) · LAD: Clayton Kershaw (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +21 Elo | LAD 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 302.0 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 2.06th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−2.5 | Margin | +2.55th of 30 |
| 5th of 151–1 | Road vs home | 1–14th of 15 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Diamondbacks: last 2
Dodgers: last 2
Head to head
ARI 1–1 LAD in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.