Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Padres- Juan SotoBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan WeathersPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kim homered to left (374 feet).4–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 34–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 24–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 9Dahl homered to left center (398 feet).4–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 9Longoria homered to left (418 feet).4–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 7Carroll homered to right (389 feet).3–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 22–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 12–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 2Machado singled to right, Odor scored, Soto to third.2–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 2Moreno grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Carroll scored, Ahmed out at second.2–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 2Ahmed singled to center, Longoria scored, Carroll to third.1–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Soto homered to center (407 feet), Grisham scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 53%
- Fair odds
- SD -111
- ARI +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.4 – 4.6 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | ARI: Ryne Nelson (no track record yet) · SD: Ryan Weathers (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | SD +21 Elo | SD 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 301.8 | Runs scored | 3.521st of 30 |
| 20th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.013th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−3.3 | Margin | −0.517th of 30 |
| 8th of 172–2 | Road vs home | 2–26th of 17 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.