Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- C.J. CronBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ty BlachPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 0 K
Padres- Xander BogaertsBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Soto singled to center, Odor scored and Azocar scored.4–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–6
- 6Machado singled to left, Azocar scored.4–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 14–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–5
- 6Cron homered to left center (435 feet), Blackmon scored.4–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–5
- 6Blackmon doubled to center, Bryant scored.2–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 5Campusano hit sacrifice fly to center, Cronenworth scored.1–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 5Tovar grounded out to second, Moustakas scored, Díaz to third.1–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Carpenter doubled to right, Cronenworth scored and Soto scored.0–4
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball 30–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 10–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Bogaerts homered to left center (417 feet), Soto scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 51%
- Fair odds
- SD -108
- COL +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.4 – 4.6 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | COL: Jose Urena (no track record yet) · SD: Michael Wacha (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | SD +8 Elo | SD 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.5 | Runs scored | 1.525th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301.5 | Runs allowed | 5.522nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+4.0 | Margin | −4.026th of 30 |
| 1st of 152–0 | Road vs home | 0–213th of 15 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Rockies: last 2
Padres: last 2
Head to head
COL 2–0 SD in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.