Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Charlie BlackmonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Padres- Ha-Seong KimBatting3-3
- Nick MartinezPitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bogaerts hit sacrifice fly to center, Kim scored.4–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 14–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 5Blackmon homered to right (389 feet), Tovar scored.4–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Montero singled to center, Blackmon scored, McMahon to second.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1McMahon grounded into fielder's choice to third, Bryant scored, Cron out at second, Blackmon to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 52%
- Fair odds
- SD -110
- COL +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.4 – 4.6 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | COL: Kyle Freeland (no track record yet) · SD: Nick Martinez (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | SD +12 Elo | SD 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 307.0 | Runs scored | 2.020th of 30 |
| 7th of 302.0 | Runs allowed | 7.022nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+5.0 | Margin | −5.027th of 30 |
| 1st of 151–0 | Road vs home | 0–110th of 15 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Rockies: last 1
Padres: last 1
Head to head
COL 1–0 SD in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.