MLB games
Updated
Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- C.J. CronBatting4-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- German MarquezPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Padres- Xander BogaertsBatting3-4
- Blake SnellPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 7Montero homered to left center (391 feet).7–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 17–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 7Cron homered to right (361 feet).6–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 6Bryant singled to left, Castro scored, Tovar to third.5–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 5Cron homered to left (348 feet), Daza scored and Blackmon scored.4–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 4Carpenter grounded into fielder's choice to first, Bogaerts scored on error, Cronenworth safe at second on throwing error by first baseman Cron.1–2
- 4Carpenter grounded into fielder's choice to first, Bogaerts scored on error, Cronenworth safe at second on throwing error by first baseman Cron.1–2
- 4Carpenter grounded into fielder's choice to first, Bogaerts scored on error, Cronenworth safe at second on throwing error by first baseman Cron.1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Machado hit sacrifice fly to center, Grisham scored.1–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Cron singled to left, Bryant scored, Blackmon to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 53%
Toss-upMiss
COL 47%SD 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 53%
- Fair odds
- SD -111
- COL +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.5 – 4.7 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | COL: German Marquez (no track record yet) · SD: Blake Snell (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | SD +18 Elo | SD 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
RockiesPadres
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
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