Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Geraldo PerdomoBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Zach DaviesPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Will SmithBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Noah SyndergaardPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9McCarthy reached on bunt single to pitcher, Gurriel Jr. scored, Carroll to third.2–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 5Perdomo doubled to right, Carroll scored.1–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Smith homered to left (347 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 54%
- Fair odds
- LAD -113
- ARI +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.3 – 4.6 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | ARI: Zach Davies (no track record yet) · LAD: Noah Syndergaard (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +28 Elo | LAD 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 301.7 | Runs scored | 6.37th of 30 |
| 24th of 306.3 | Runs allowed | 1.74th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−4.7 | Margin | +4.74th of 30 |
| 9th of 151–2 | Road vs home | 2–13rd of 15 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Diamondbacks: last 3
Head to head
ARI 1–2 LAD in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.