Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ryan McMahonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Austin GomberPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Padres- Xander BogaertsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7McMahon homered to right center (381 feet).1–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 3Bogaerts homered to left (413 feet), Azocar scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3Grisham homered to center (419 feet).0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 52%
- Fair odds
- SD -109
- COL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.4 – 4.6 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | COL: Austin Gomber (no track record yet) · SD: Seth Lugo (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | SD +13 Elo | SD 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.718th of 30 |
| 11th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 5.019th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −1.320th of 30 |
| 3rd of 152–1 | Road vs home | 1–29th of 15 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Rockies: last 3
Head to head
COL 2–1 SD in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.