Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Josh RojasBatting3-3, 2 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Padres- Xander BogaertsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yu DarvishPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Grisham homered to right (416 feet).8–6
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play8–6
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul8–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 38–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging8–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 28–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–5
- 8Rojas stole home, Marte stole second.8–5
- 8Rojas stole home, Marte stole second.8–5
- 8Gurriel Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Herrera scored, Rojas to third.7–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 27–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 16–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–5
- 8Herrera singled to center, Perdomo scored.6–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 8Perdomo sacrificed, McCarthy scored.5–5
- 8McCarthy scored on error, Perdomo safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Carpenter.5–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul5–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 6Rojas singled to right, Perdomo scored, Herrera to third.4–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–5
- 6Perdomo doubled to right, Thomas scored and McCarthy scored.3–5
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–5
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 23–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 5Bogaerts homered to left center (374 feet), Soto scored.1–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Rojas hit sacrifice fly to left, Perdomo scored, Herrera to second.1–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 54%
- Fair odds
- SD -112
- ARI +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.4 – 4.7 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | — | ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · SD: Yu Darvish (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | SD +26 Elo | SD 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 302.2 | Runs scored | 3.819th of 30 |
| 19th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.011th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−2.8 | Margin | −0.215th of 30 |
| 12th of 172–3 | Road vs home | 3–26th of 17 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 0–1 SD in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.