Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Yonathan DazaBatting2-4
- German MarquezPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Will SmithBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Julio UriasPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Moustakas hit sacrifice fly to left, Montero scored.2–5
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–5
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 31–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 21–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 9Montero doubled to right, Bryant scored.1–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–5
- 8Smith doubled to right, Betts scored, Freeman to third.0–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 4Muncy homered to right (381 feet).0–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 30–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 3Heyward homered to right (385 feet).0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Smith homered to left center (382 feet), Betts scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 54%
- Fair odds
- LAD -112
- COL +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.5 – 4.8 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +14 | COL: German Marquez: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · LAD: Julio Urias: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +27 Elo | LAD 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 6.63rd of 30 |
| 21st of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 2.23rd of 30 |
| 21st of 30−1.4 | Margin | +4.42nd of 30 |
| 14th of 172–3 | Road vs home | 3–23rd of 17 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 0–1 LAD in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.