Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Harold CastroBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Dodgers- Jason HeywardBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Michael GrovePitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Smith homered to left center (390 feet), Freeman scored.4–13
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–13
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–11
- 7Heyward hit sacrifice fly to center, Outman scored, Vargas to second.4–11
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–11
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–10
- 7Outman tripled to right, Martinez scored.4–10
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 24–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–9
- 5Heyward homered to right (391 feet), Vargas scored.4–9
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–9
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–7
- 5Vargas singled to left, Outman scored.4–7
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–7
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–6
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 24–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 14–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–6
- 5Outman tripled to right, Muncy scored and Martinez scored.4–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 24–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 5Martinez singled to left, Freeman scored and Smith scored, Muncy to second.4–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 5Profar grounded into double play, second to first, Castro scored, Trejo out at second.4–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 5Castro singled to right, Moustakas scored and Díaz scored.3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Díaz doubled to third, McMahon scored, Moustakas to third.1–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 3Taylor homered to center (430 feet), Heyward scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 53%
- Fair odds
- LAD -111
- COL +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.4 – 4.6 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | COL: Ryan Feltner (no track record yet) · LAD: Michael Grove (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +21 Elo | LAD 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.012th of 30 |
| 9th of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 1.84th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +3.36th of 30 |
| 8th of 172–2 | Road vs home | 2–27th of 17 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.