St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Tyler O'NeillBatting2-4
- Jake WoodfordPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Brewers- Willy AdamesBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Tellez doubled to center, Adames scored and Winker scored.1–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 31–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 7Yelich homered to center (413 feet).1–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Adames homered to left center (383 feet).1–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 4Walker singled to center, Arenado scored, Gorman to second.1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Adames doubled to left, Wiemer scored and Yelich scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 57%
- Fair odds
- MIL -117
- STL +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.4 – 4.7 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +16 | STL: Jake Woodford: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.80 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +51 Elo | MIL 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.37th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 2.83rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +2.52nd of 30 |
| 15th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 4–13rd of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 1–1 MIL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.