Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Cardinals- Jordan WalkerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Walker doubled to left, Carlson scored.5–2
- 9Pitch 8 : Ball In Play5–2
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging5–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 35–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 25–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 7Walker homered to left (383 feet).5–1
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 25–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 15–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 4Olson doubled to right, Acuña Jr. scored.5–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 2Olson homered to center (410 feet).4–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 1Albies hit sacrifice fly to left, Riley scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 1Riley singled to center, Olson scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Olson doubled to center, Acuña Jr. scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 50%
- Fair odds
- STL -107
- ATL +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.6 – 4.8 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | −9 | ATL: Bryce Elder (no track record yet) · STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +1 Elo | ATL 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 305.4 | Runs scored | 5.49th of 30 |
| 6th of 302.4 | Runs allowed | 5.422nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+3.0 | Margin | 0.012th of 30 |
| 2nd of 174–1 | Road vs home | 2–39th of 17 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 2–0 STL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.