Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Nationals- Keibert RuizBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Josiah GrayPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ruiz homered to right (407 feet).7–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 27–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 7Olson homered to center (420 feet), Arcia scored.7–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 25–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking5–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 4Ozuna homered to left center (429 feet).5–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 3Harris II singled to left, Riley scored, Albies to second.4–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 23–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 13–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 3Albies walked, Arcia scored on Gray wild pitch, Riley to second.3–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 43–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 32–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Olson homered to right center (406 feet).2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Acuña Jr. homered to left (383 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 52%
- Fair odds
- WSH -110
- ATL +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.3 – 4.5 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | ATL: Spencer Strider (no track record yet) · WSH: Josiah Gray (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +12 Elo | WSH 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 307.0 | Runs scored | 2.021st of 30 |
| 7th of 302.0 | Runs allowed | 7.026th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+5.0 | Margin | −5.029th of 30 |
| 1st of 151–0 | Road vs home | 0–111th of 15 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Braves: last 1
Nationals: last 1
Head to head
ATL 1–0 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.