MLB games
Updated
Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Travis d'ArnaudBatting4-5, 2 RBI
- Max FriedPitching3.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Nationals- Joey MenesesBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Arcia lined out to right, d'Arnaud scored on throwing error by shortstop Abrams.7–2
- 9Arcia lined out to right, d'Arnaud scored on throwing error by shortstop Abrams.7–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 9d'Arnaud doubled to center, Harris II scored and Hilliard scored.6–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 5Meneses singled to center, Robles scored.4–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 4Murphy grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Olson scored, Albies out at second, Riley to third.4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 2Call hit sacrifice fly to center, Smith scored on error, Ruiz safe at third on throwing error by center fielder Harris II.3–1
- 2Call hit sacrifice fly to center, Smith scored on error, Ruiz safe at third on throwing error by center fielder Harris II.3–1
- 2Call hit sacrifice fly to center, Smith scored on error, Ruiz safe at third on throwing error by center fielder Harris II.3–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 2Albies reached on infield single to shortstop, Arcia scored, Riley to second, Acuña Jr. to third.3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Riley walked, d'Arnaud scored, Acuña Jr. to second, Arcia to third.2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 42–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 32–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Arcia singled to right, Harris II scored, d'Arnaud to second.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 53%
Toss-upMiss
ATL 47%WSH 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 53%
- Fair odds
- WSH -111
- ATL +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.5 – 4.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | ATL: Max Fried (no track record yet) · WSH: Patrick Corbin (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +18 Elo | WSH 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
BravesNationals
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
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