Toronto Blue Jays at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Kevin KiermaierBatting2-4
- Kevin GausmanPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Cardinals- Nolan GormanBatting1-2, 2 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Walker reached on infield single to second, Arenado scored.1–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 8Guerrero Jr. scored, Chapman to second on wild pitch by Hicks.1–3
- 8Guerrero Jr. scored on Hicks wild pitch, Chapman to second on wild pitch by Hicks.1–3
- 3Gorman singled to left, Goldschmidt scored and Arenado scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3Donovan scored, Arenado safe at second, Goldschmidt safe at third on throwing error by third baseman Chapman.0–1
- 3Donovan scored on error, Arenado safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Chapman, Arenado safe at second on error, Goldschmidt safe at third on error.0–1
- 3Donovan scored on error, Arenado safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Chapman, Arenado safe at second on error, Goldschmidt safe at third on error.0–1
- 3Donovan scored on error, Arenado safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Chapman, Arenado safe at second on error, Goldschmidt safe at third on error.0–1
- 3Donovan scored on error, Arenado safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Chapman, Arenado safe at second on error, Goldschmidt safe at third on error.0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 52%
- Fair odds
- STL -110
- TOR +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.6 – 4.8 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | TOR: Kevin Gausman (no track record yet) · STL: Jack Flaherty (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | STL +16 Elo | STL 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 3010.0 | Runs scored | 9.04th of 30 |
| 26th of 309.0 | Runs allowed | 10.028th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −1.017th of 30 |
| 1st of 151–0 | Road vs home | 0–110th of 15 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Blue Jays: last 1
Cardinals: last 1
Head to head
TOR 1–0 STL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.