MLB games
Updated
Toronto Blue Jays at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting5-6, 1 RBI
- Alek ManoahPitching3.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Brendan DonovanBatting3-6, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching3.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Guerrero Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Kiermaier scored.10–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–9
- 9Springer reached on infield single to shortstop, Merrifield scored, Kiermaier to third.9–9
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–9
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–9
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging8–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–9
- 8Arenado hit a ground rule double, Goldschmidt scored and Nootbaar scored.8–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 18–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–9
- 8Guerrero Jr. singled to right, Springer scored and Bichette scored, Guerrero Jr. to second.8–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–7
- 7Walker grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Contreras scored, Gorman out at second, O'Neill to third.6–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–6
- 7Chapman singled to right, Lukes scored.6–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–6
- 6Goldschmidt singled to right, Donovan scored, Nootbaar to third.5–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 15–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–6
- 4Donovan homered to right center (388 feet), Edman scored.5–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 4Varsho hit sacrifice fly to left, Springer scored.5–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging5–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 25–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 3O'Neill homered to center, Contreras scored.4–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 53%
Toss-upMiss
TOR 47%STL 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 53%
- Fair odds
- STL -111
- TOR +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.5 – 4.7 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | TOR: Alek Manoah (no track record yet) · STL: Miles Mikolas (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | STL +18 Elo | STL 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Blue JaysCardinals
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
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